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研报掘金丨海通国际:维持伊利股份“优于大市”评级,目标价36.6元

Core Viewpoint - The report from Haitong International indicates that Yili Group achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.2 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a Q2 net profit of 2.326 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.65% [1] Business Performance - Liquid milk revenue reached 36.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, while market shares for ambient yogurt, ambient dairy beverages, and premium white milk increased; low-temperature white milk revenue grew over 20% due to significant product innovation and channel penetration [1] - Revenue from milk powder and dairy products was 16.578 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.3%; the market share for infant formula reached 18.1%, ranking first nationally, while adult powder market share stood at 26.1%, maintaining the industry's leading position [1] - Ice cream revenue amounted to 8.229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4%, and the company continued to hold the industry's top retail share both online and offline [1] International Expansion - The overseas business is rapidly expanding, with revenue from overseas ice cream and goat milk powder increasing by 14.4% and 65.7%, respectively [1] Market Outlook - Overall, the company has established a solid advantage across major product categories, and its diversified structure ensures resilience in performance; with the gradual balance of raw milk supply and demand, stabilization of milk prices, and an upgrade in consumption structure driven by health needs, the company is expected to continue leveraging its leading position [1] Valuation - Based on comparable company valuations, a target price of 36.6 yuan is set for 2025, with a 21x PE ratio, maintaining an "outperform the market" rating [1]