美联储重启降息对全球股市影响几何？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [2][3] - The nature of the rate cut is categorized as a preventive cut, aimed at preemptively addressing potential economic risks rather than responding to a severe economic downturn [3][8] - Historical analysis shows that preventive rate cuts generally have a positive impact on the U.S. stock market, reducing corporate financing costs and potentially stimulating mergers and acquisitions [4][5] Group 2 - The current economic environment is characterized by "stagflation," with a GDP growth rate of 2.4% in Q4 2024, indicating a gradual slowdown but not a clear recession [8][9] - The inflation rate remains relatively high, with core PCE and CPI growth rates at 2.86% and 3.2% respectively, complicating the effectiveness of the current rate cut [8][10] - The first phase of the current rate cut cycle has not met expectations, with the stock market showing weak performance despite multiple rate cuts [9][10] Group 3 - There has been a significant outflow of funds from the U.S. stock market, with approximately $259 billion exiting in the first half of the year, primarily moving to safer assets like bonds and money markets [13][15] - Non-U.S. markets, particularly in China and Europe, have seen increased foreign investment, with China experiencing a net increase of $10.1 billion in foreign holdings of stocks and funds in the first half of 2025 [14][15] - The trend of capital outflow from U.S. equities is viewed as a rebalancing of asset allocation rather than a mass exodus, reflecting investor caution regarding the U.S. economy and high valuations [15][16] Group 4 - The potential impact of the Fed's second phase of rate cuts on global markets will depend on whether the Fed adopts a moderate preventive approach or a more aggressive easing strategy [17][18] - If the Fed continues with a moderate approach, U.S. stock market funds are likely to remain within the domestic financial system, while some capital may seek opportunities in global markets [17][18] - An aggressive easing strategy could lead to a temporary boost in global markets due to increased liquidity, but risks of a sharp capital outflow could arise if inflation pressures force the Fed to tighten policy [18][19]