Zheshang Securities(SH:601878) 智通财经网·2025-09-19 08:48Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in August showed signs of recovery with revenue reaching 1189.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a business volume of 16.15 billion pieces, up 12.3% year-on-year [1][2]. Industry Summary - August express delivery revenue was 1189.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, and business volume reached 16.15 billion pieces, growing 12.3% year-on-year [1][2]. - The average price per delivery in August was 7.37 yuan, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase of 0.01 yuan but a year-on-year decline of 7.2% [2]. - Major provinces like Guangdong and Zhejiang have stabilized their express delivery prices [2]. Company Performance - YTO Express reported revenue of 53.9 billion yuan in August, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, with a business volume of 25.1 billion pieces, up 11.1%. The average revenue per piece was 2.15 yuan, down 1.13% year-on-year but up 0.07 yuan month-on-month [3]. - Yunda Express achieved revenue of 41.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with a business volume of 21.45 billion pieces, up 8.7%. The average revenue per piece was 1.92 yuan, down 3.52% year-on-year but up 0.01 yuan month-on-month [3]. - Shentong Express reported revenue of 44.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with a business volume of 21.47 billion pieces, up 10.9%. The average revenue per piece was 2.06 yuan, up 3% year-on-year and up 0.09 yuan month-on-month [3]. Price Increase Trends - Provinces like Liaoning and Heilongjiang announced price increases effective from September 20, with over 80% of the national market share in provinces that have announced price hikes [4]. - The industry has seen a slight price recovery since the "anti-involution" policy was implemented, and the trend of rising prices is expected to continue [4]. - The upcoming autumn and winter seasons are anticipated to boost demand, potentially leading to further increases in delivery fees [4]. Profitability Elasticity - A price increase of 0.1 yuan is estimated to increase the average revenue per delivery for listed companies by 0.05 yuan, contributing to a net profit increase of 0.0375 yuan per piece [5]. - For 2024, the estimated profit per piece for major companies is as follows: YTO (0.15 yuan), Shentong (0.05 yuan), Zhongtong (0.3 yuan), and Yunda (0.08 yuan). A nationwide price increase of 0.3 yuan would result in profit elasticity of 75%, 245%, 38%, and 141% respectively [5]. Investment Recommendations - Despite challenges in the first half of 2025, the express delivery sector is expected to recover due to price stabilization and improved competitive dynamics [6]. - Recommended stocks include YTO Express (600233.SH), Shentong Express (002468.SZ), Jitu Express-W (01519), Zhongtong Express-W (02057), and Yunda Express (002120.SZ) [6].