Lilly(US:LLY) Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-09-19 08:59Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly's orforglipron shows significantly better glycemic control compared to oral semaglutide in the phase III clinical trial "ACHIEVE-3" [2][3] Group 1: Clinical Trial Results - In the ACHIEVE-3 trial, the highest dose of orforglipron resulted in a 2.2% reduction in HbA1c, while the highest dose of oral semaglutide resulted in a 1.4% reduction [3] - Participants using the highest dose of orforglipron lost an average of 8.9 kg (9.2%), compared to a 5.0 kg (5.3%) loss for those on oral semaglutide, representing a relative improvement of 73.6% [3] - Orforglipron users showed clinically meaningful improvements in several cardiovascular risk factors, including non-HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and triglycerides [3] Group 2: Market Context and Competitors - Oral semaglutide is currently the only approved oral GLP-1 drug for type 2 diabetes, with revenue growth from $0.07 billion in 2019 to $3.383 billion in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 239.5% [5] - Novo Nordisk has submitted a weight loss indication application for oral semaglutide, which has shown near-injection efficacy in late-stage trials [5] - The development of oral GLP-1 formulations is challenging, with two main directions: oral peptides and oral small molecules, each facing unique challenges [5][6] Group 3: Industry Trends - There is a growing preference for oral medications over injections, with 39.7% of surveyed individuals indicating a preference for oral treatments [6] - The complexity and unpredictability of side effects in oral small molecules present additional challenges, but the higher technical barriers in oral GLP-1 development may reduce competition [6] - Chinese companies are accelerating their development of oral GLP-1 drugs, with several candidates in late-stage clinical trials [6]