Gold - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5.00% on September 18, with expectations of two more 25 basis point cuts in the near future, but the dot plot indicates a smaller reduction than anticipated for next year [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is 91.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut by December is 83.9% [1] - Gold prices fell as profit-taking occurred after the rate cut, with a recent high of $3707, and a focus on the support level at $3623 [1] Oil - Global oil demand reached 104.4 million barrels per day as of September 17, an increase of 520,000 barrels per day year-on-year, with a year-to-date increase of 800,000 barrels per day [2] - Recent EIA data showed a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories due to decreased imports and near-peak exports [2] - Concerns over weakening U.S. economic data, particularly in employment, may dampen oil demand expectations [2] Dollar Index - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the rate cut was a "risk management measure" in response to a weak labor market, and there is no rush to begin easing [3] - Recent data showed an increase in initial jobless claims to 231,000, which was below the expected 240,000, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose significantly from -0.3 to 23.2 [3] - The dollar index rebounded to around 97.50 after the Fed's decision, with a potential downward trend if it cannot break above the 98 level [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been on a continuous rise, reaching a high of 45900, indicating strong bullish momentum [5] - Short-term adjustments are expected, with support levels at 44600 and 43750 [5] Copper - Copper prices have been fluctuating downwards from $4.65, with a potential end to the recent decline as support is observed at $4.45 [6] - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound movement, with resistance at $4.57 and support at $4.51 [6]
百利好晚盘分析：鸽派预期落空 黄金连回两日
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-19 09:15