3 6 Ke·2025-09-19 09:24Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market has shifted from basic competition in subsidies and order volume to a comprehensive assessment of the long-term strategic determination and financial strength of companies like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com as their financial reports are released [1] Financial Performance - Alibaba's free cash flow has shown a significant net outflow due to substantial investments in high-tech areas like cloud services, with a free cash flow of negative figures in Q2 2025 [1] - Meituan is expected to see a similar trend, with its free cash flow likely turning into a net outflow as its food delivery business enters the traditional peak season in Q3 2025 [1] Cash Reserves and Liquidity - As of mid-2025, Meituan has a total of 101.7 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, with restricted cash of 17.9 billion yuan and short-term investments of 69.4 billion yuan, totaling approximately 189 billion yuan, indicating strong liquidity [2] - In extreme stress tests, Meituan's monetary assets can cover its short-term debts of about 93.5 billion yuan, leaving a cash reserve of approximately 98.6 billion yuan, suggesting a solid financial cushion [2] Future Cash Flow Projections - Meituan's EBITDA for the full year of 2025 is projected to be negative 4.5 billion yuan, with a significant cash outflow expected in the second half of 2025, potentially exceeding 20 billion yuan [2][3] - If the high subsidy expenditures for food delivery and flash purchase businesses continue, Meituan's cash reserves could decrease to between 50 billion and 70 billion yuan by the end of 2026 [3] Asset Optimization Strategies - Meituan has shown signs of optimizing its asset structure, with long-term investments totaling 43.4 billion yuan as of mid-2025, down from 48.8 billion yuan at the end of 2024, indicating a strategy to increase cash reserves [4][5] - The company has also reduced its long-term financial investments by 6.4 billion yuan and short-term financial investments by 2.8 billion yuan, reflecting proactive measures to bolster cash reserves [5] Potential Asset Liquidation - Meituan's significant holdings in listed companies, particularly in Li Auto, may be considered for liquidation to support core business development if necessary [6][8] - The potential sale of Li Auto shares could provide substantial cash flow and significantly enhance the company's net profit, given the floating profit of approximately 8 billion yuan from this investment [8] Market Impact on Li Auto - If Meituan decides to reduce its stake in Li Auto, it may exert downward pressure on Li Auto's stock price, although the impact may be limited if Li Auto maintains strong fundamentals and competitive products [9]