智昇黄金原油分析：鸽派预期落空 黄金连回两日

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5.00%, with expectations for two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the near future [1] - Despite the rate cut, the dot plot indicates that the magnitude of future rate cuts will be less than expected, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, causing gold prices to retreat [1] - Gold prices reached a high of $3707 but have seen a pullback, with short-term support at $3623; if this level is breached, a deeper correction may occur [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Global oil demand as of September 17 was 104.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 520,000 barrels per day year-on-year, with a year-to-date increase of 800,000 barrels per day [2] - Recent EIA data showed a significant decline in US crude oil inventories due to decreased imports and near-peak exports [2] - Weakening US economic data, particularly in employment, raises concerns about future oil demand [2] Group 3: Currency and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index rebounded to around 97.50 after the Fed's rate decision, following a period of decline since early August [3] - Recent US economic data, including a lower-than-expected increase in initial jobless claims and a significant rise in the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, supported the dollar's recovery [2][3] - The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 4% and reduced its quantitative tightening pace, indicating a potential for future rate cuts [4]