美联储降息后大宗商品价格不升反降 是利好出尽还是另有其他原因？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global commodity market did not respond positively to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with prices of key industrial raw materials like oil, copper, and iron ore declining [1][2] - Following the Fed's rate cut, iron ore futures in Singapore fell to 105.45 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.42%, indicating weak global demand and insufficient rate cut impact [1] - International oil prices have also seen consecutive declines, with light crude oil futures dropping by 47 cents (0.73%) on September 17 and another 48 cents (0.75%) on September 18 [1] Group 2 - The market's reaction to the Fed's rate cut reflects a "buy the rumor, sell the news" sentiment, as prices of oil, gold, and non-ferrous metals weakened after the anticipated cut was realized [2] - The current tightening of liquidity due to the Fed's balance sheet reduction is contributing to a stronger dollar, which in turn suppresses commodity prices, with only gold and non-ferrous metals showing gains due to their safe-haven status [2] - The global industrial product capacity expansion cycle is nearing its end, leading to a significant reduction in investment-driven price increases for industrial commodities [2] Group 3 - The demand side of commodities is facing challenges from geopolitical tensions and trade restructuring, which increases short-term price volatility risks [3] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Fed's future monetary policy, with expectations that the pace of rate cuts may accelerate after the current chairman's term ends in May [3]