鲍威尔释放关键信号：本次属风险管理型降息，就业风险成焦点

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is characterized as a "risk management" move rather than an economic stimulus, indicating concerns over a softening labor market and potential unemployment issues [3][8][15]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - On September 17, 2025, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [3][8]. - The market had anticipated this move, with a 96% probability of the rate cut indicated by CME data prior to the meeting [6]. Labor Market Concerns - The Fed's statement removed the phrase "robust labor market" and included concerns about slowing job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [6][8]. - Chairman Powell emphasized that the rate cut is a precautionary measure to support the labor market amid signs of weakness [3][8]. Economic Indicators - U.S. GDP growth for the first half of the year was only 1.5%, down from 2.5% the previous year, highlighting economic slowdown [8]. - The labor market is showing signs of deceleration, with both job creation and demand softening [8][14]. Future Rate Cuts - There is internal disagreement within the FOMC regarding future rate cuts, with 10 members suggesting two or more cuts this year, while 9 members believe only one or none is necessary [8][10]. - Powell described the Fed's approach as cautious, balancing the risks of inflation and unemployment without a clear path forward [10][14]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, markets experienced a brief uptick, with predictions of a potential 0.5%-1% rise in the S&P 500 index [10]. - However, there are warnings of a possible 3%-5% market correction before the end of the month due to the "good news" being priced in [10][12]. Broader Implications - The Fed's decision reflects a complex balancing act between managing inflation risks and supporting employment, with Powell stating there is no risk-free policy path [14][15]. - The current economic environment requires careful navigation, as the Fed aims to mitigate risks while remaining vigilant about inflation and labor market conditions [15][16].