嘉实基金吴越：明年消费板块有望迎来反转，白酒有很大向上动能｜基金佳问第113期

Core Viewpoint - The recent controversy surrounding pre-prepared dishes and the upcoming consumption peak during the holidays has heightened investor interest in the consumer sector, particularly in areas like pre-prepared dishes and liquor [2][4]. Group 1: Pre-prepared Dishes Industry - The pre-prepared dishes industry is currently facing scrutiny, with the recent social event potentially impacting short-term sales and performance of supply chain companies, but it is expected to benefit in the long term from the implementation of national standards [6][7]. - The industry has low entry barriers and is fragmented, leading to issues such as food safety and inconsistent standards, which may prompt regulatory changes that favor healthier industry development [4][6]. - There are fewer than ten significant pre-prepared dish companies in the A-share market, with a total market capitalization of less than 100 billion, indicating a small and underperforming sector compared to the overall market [7]. Group 2: Liquor Industry - The liquor sector is viewed as being at a bottom point, with significant opportunities expected in the coming year, as the risk-reward ratio is currently favorable [5][10]. - The long-term growth potential of the liquor industry remains intact, driven by cultural factors and ongoing business activities, as long as the macroeconomic environment does not stagnate [11][12]. - Current market conditions show a significant divergence in sentiment, with over 90% of funds not favoring liquor stocks, presenting a potential opportunity for investment [13]. Group 3: Consumer Growth Stocks - The concept of "new consumption" is misleading, as there are only about 50 companies that truly fit this category, and most are traditional consumer companies that have been around for several years [14]. - Consumer growth stocks, which maintain good performance even under macroeconomic pressure, are expected to yield positive returns regardless of the overall consumption environment next year [15]. - The upcoming fourth quarter may see a structural rebalancing in the market, with consumer sectors, particularly liquor, being highlighted as key areas for investment [18][19].