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KVB官网:地缘政治风险抵消美元反弹,金价守住3660美元附近涨幅
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-19 10:34

Core Viewpoint - Gold has attracted some buyers and halted a two-day pullback from historical highs, driven by renewed geopolitical risks that have increased demand for the safe-haven asset, although upside potential appears limited [1][3]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks and Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, have provided some support for gold prices [3][4]. - U.S. President Donald Trump expressed disappointment in Russian President Vladimir Putin, urging allies to stop purchasing oil from Russia to end the ongoing war with Ukraine [4]. - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced proposals to accelerate the EU's phase-out of fossil fuel imports from Russia [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Dollar Impact - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish stance has supported the dollar, limiting the upward movement of gold, which is a non-yielding asset [2][5]. - The Fed announced its first rate cut since December 2024, indicating further cuts may occur by the end of the year amid a weak labor market [4]. - The dollar is expected to rebound from its lowest level since February 2022 following Powell's hawkish assessment, which has suppressed gold prices [3][5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold (XAU/USD) maintained slight gains but failed to break the $3,660 mark, with resistance expected around $3,673-$3,675 if it breaks above [3][8]. - A significant drop below the $3,628-$3,626 support level could lead to further declines towards $3,563-$3,562, with $3,511-$3,510 acting as strong support [8]. - Caution is advised before making aggressive directional bets, as the market awaits strong follow-up buying to confirm the end of the recent pullback from historical highs [5][6].