KVB PRIME：英镑兑美元跌至1.3540一线，后市能否止跌回升？

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD pair continues to adjust, breaking below the 1.3600 support level, influenced by a rebound in the US dollar and a muted market reaction to the Bank of England's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged [1][6]. Technical Analysis - Earlier in the week, GBP/USD broke through the strong resistance level of 1.3600, with buying interest observed on Thursday, indicating some bullish momentum [4]. - The daily oscillators are building momentum and have not yet entered the overbought zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance for GBP/USD remains upward, potentially challenging the 1.3700 level [4]. - A breakthrough above the overnight high of 1.3725 could accelerate GBP/USD towards the intermediate resistance at 1.3745, with a target near the 1.3800 area, which is the year-to-date high set in July [4]. - On the downside, the intraday low around 1.3585 is expected to act as initial support, with further declines potentially attracting new buying interest around the 1.3555-1.3550 region [4]. Fundamental Analysis - Recent data showed UK retail sales increased by 0.7% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus of 0.6%, while retail sales excluding fuel rose by 0.8% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3% [5]. - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with indications of two more rate cuts expected this year due to concerns over a slowing job market [5][6]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, and the recent rate cut was more about risk management, suggesting a cautious approach moving forward [6]. - The contrasting dovish tone of the Fed compared to the Bank of England's steady stance supports the performance of GBP/USD, especially in light of rising inflation in the UK, which reached 3.8% year-on-year in August, the highest since January 2024 [6].