Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on September 18 raises questions about the expected negative correlation between gold and the US dollar, as the dollar weakened but gold did not rise as anticipated [1][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The market had high expectations for a larger rate cut of 50 basis points, but the actual cut was only 25 basis points, leading to a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment regarding gold [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to the rate cut, described as risk management, contributed to the drop in gold prices [3]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Global central banks, including China, have engaged in significant monetary expansion, with China's M2 money supply increasing from 60 trillion yuan in 1995 to over 300 trillion yuan today, highlighting the inflationary pressure on fiat currencies [4]. - The limited supply of gold compared to the unlimited production of paper currency suggests that gold will retain its value as paper currency depreciates, indicating a loss of confidence in fiat money [4]. Group 3: Dollar Dynamics - The US dollar's dominance is being challenged as many countries seek alternatives, with US debt reaching 37 trillion dollars and concerns about the sustainability of this debt growing [5]. - Continuous interest rate cuts are expected to lead to further depreciation of the dollar, which could ultimately support an increase in gold prices as investors seek to hedge against currency devaluation [5][6]. Group 4: Investment Perspective - In the current economic environment, gold is viewed as a reliable store of value compared to other investment options, as confidence in fiat currencies diminishes [6]. - The decision to invest in gold versus holding cash depends on individual circumstances, but gold is recommended as a hedge against inflation [6].
香港第一金PPLI：美联储降息25基点 刺激黄金走跌的两大逻辑
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-19 10:40