DLS MARKETS：英镑暴跌，因英国财政困境加剧推高英国国债收益率

Group 1: UK Economic Situation - UK public sector net borrowing surged to £18 billion in August, the highest level for the month in five years, significantly exceeding economists' expectations of £12.8 billion [1] - The increase in borrowing is expected to pressure the UK government to consider cuts in public spending or tax increases in the upcoming autumn budget [1] - The yield on 30-year UK government bonds rose over 1% to nearly 5.50%, reflecting heightened concerns over fiscal stability [1] Group 2: Retail Sales and Economic Indicators - UK retail sales data for August exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, surpassing forecasts of 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [1] - The strong performance in retail sales was driven by robust demand from online retailers and textile, clothing, and footwear stores [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Bank of England (BoE) maintained its interest rate at 4% with a 7-2 majority vote, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid persistent inflation [2] - The BoE confirmed that inflation pressures are expected to peak around 4% in September [2] - The Federal Reserve has indicated plans to lower interest rates two more times this year, following a recent cut of 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [4] Group 4: Currency Market Dynamics - The British pound faced significant selling pressure, dropping to around 1.3500 against the US dollar, influenced by a stronger dollar and the recent retail sales data [4][6] - The pound's decline was exacerbated by a breakdown below the 20-day exponential moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6] - Key support for GBP/USD is at the August 1 low of 1.3140, while resistance is at the July 1 high of 1.3800 [6]