市场情绪趋于谨慎！下周，关注节前效应

Core Insights - The A-share market continues to experience a shrinking and volatile trend, with all three major indices closing lower, while resource cyclical stocks and policy-driven consumer sectors show resilience [1][2] - The Hong Kong market, supported by technology stocks, remains relatively stable, with the Hang Seng Technology Index slightly increasing by 0.37% [1][2] - A focus on upcoming National Day holiday consumption data and policy developments is essential, alongside monitoring resource prices and capital rotation within the technology sector [1][3] Market Performance - A-share market shows a decline with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.30% to 3820.09 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.16% to 3091.00 points, while the STAR Market's index fell 1.28% [2] - The total trading volume in the A-share market decreased significantly by 820 billion to 2.35 trillion yuan, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors [2] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose slightly by 0.09% to 26545.1 points, with a trading volume of 376.81 billion HKD and continued net inflow from southbound funds [2] Industry Highlights and Driving Logic - Resource cyclical and policy-sensitive sectors in the A-share market are performing well, with the photolithography machine index rising by 2.94% due to policy support and domestic substitution logic [3] - The coal sector is benefiting from a rebound in spot prices, with thermal coal prices increasing by 12 yuan/ton from previous lows [3] - The cultural tourism sector is seeing a surge in demand as the National Day holiday approaches, leading to multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [3] Underperforming Sectors and Driving Logic - The A-share market's previously popular growth sectors are experiencing a collective pullback, with the robotics sector leading the decline, as the robotics index fell by 5.46% [4] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors are facing widespread declines, particularly among unprofitable biotech stocks [4] - In the Hong Kong market, the pharmaceutical and education sectors are under pressure, with the unprofitable biotech index down 4.05% [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The current market presents a differentiated pattern of "A-share volume adjustment and strong structure in Hong Kong," necessitating attention to the National Day holiday effect and changes in external liquidity [5] - For A-shares, a defensive strategy focusing on resource sectors like coal and non-ferrous metals is recommended, alongside technology sectors such as photolithography and storage chips [5][6] - In the Hong Kong market, it is advisable to capitalize on the dual main lines of "technology manufacturing + policy sensitivity," particularly in the semiconductor and new energy vehicle supply chains [6]