伍戈：反内卷，另一侧呢？

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "anti-involution" emphasizes governance against disorderly competition among enterprises, and is also seen as a crucial tool to reverse the ongoing decline in macro prices. Recent expectations of supply constraints have strengthened, but prices related to "anti-involution" have experienced a short-term spike followed by a decline. The future dynamics will depend on the demand side [2][5][9]. Group 1: Debt Management - Historically, debt management has helped to improve the liquidity situation of local governments and urban investment enterprises to achieve "risk prevention." However, this period of debt management often corresponds with weakened investment demand in infrastructure, which can hinder "stabilizing growth." This explains the divergence between government bond issuance and infrastructure investment trends observed this year [5][9]. - The current round of debt management is accompanied by the clearing of local financing platforms, resulting in negative net financing for urban investment bonds and zero growth in interest-bearing liabilities of urban investment enterprises. This further elucidates the divergence between government bond issuance and infrastructure investment [5][9]. Group 2: Shift in Fiscal Spending - Unlike in the past, the philosophy of fiscal spending is gradually shifting from "investment in objects" to "investment in people." Consequently, various types of social spending have accelerated this year, while infrastructure spending has significantly lagged. "Investment in people" is beneficial for long-term economic development, but its effect on short-term total demand expansion is relatively limited or delayed [7][9]. - Future projections indicate that land transfer income may continue to decline significantly, suggesting persistent debt management pressures. It is also anticipated that "early allocation of part of next year's new local government debt limits and proactive use of debt management quotas" will be necessary [9][10].