果然财经|美联储降息后市场反常震荡，黄金与A股为何不买账？

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first cut in 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - Despite the rate cut aligning with market expectations, Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks dampened market sentiment, emphasizing that a 50 basis point cut lacked broad support and that there was no need for significant cuts [2] - The Fed's economic growth forecast was raised to 1.6%, indicating a focus on economic resilience and inflation vigilance, which shifted market perceptions from aggressive easing to prioritizing economic strength [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Gold prices initially surged to a historical high of $3744 per ounce following the rate cut but quickly retreated, reflecting a "buy the rumor, sell the news" mentality among investors [1][3] - A-shares experienced a decline, with all three major indices dropping over 1%, indicating a structural shift in investment logic from liquidity-driven to fundamental verification [6] - The A-share market's reaction was influenced by Powell's hawkish stance, leading to a reassessment of global liquidity improvements and creating dual pressures from domestic policy and external demand expectations [6] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market exhibited significant volatility, with prices fluctuating over $60 in a single day, driven by market psychology surrounding the rate cut [3][4] - Technical indicators suggested that gold was overbought, with the 14-day RSI reaching 78, indicating potential for a technical pullback [4] - Long-term support for gold prices remains intact due to the initiation of the Fed's rate cut cycle, weakening of the dollar credit system, and strong demand from central banks [4] Group 4: A-share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to face a period of structural opportunities despite short-term volatility, with technology growth and low volatility dividend sectors being highlighted for potential gains [8] - The market may experience a "policy-driven + profit improvement" support dynamic in the fourth quarter, suggesting a potential upward trend [8] - Foreign capital continues to flow into the A-share market, indicating renewed interest in Chinese assets despite short-term fluctuations [10] Group 5: Future Considerations - The next three months are critical for market performance, with inflation data being a key variable that could influence the Fed's rate cut pace [9] - The ongoing strong demand for gold from global central banks, particularly from the People's Bank of China, suggests potential for further increases in gold reserves [9]