美联储今年首次降息25个基点，中美利差收窄，中国资产抢占发展机遇

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4%-4.25%, marking the fourth adjustment since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024 [2][4] - The Fed's dot plot indicates an expectation of an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, suggesting a total potential cut of 75 basis points for the year [2][7] - Following the rate cut, global capital markets experienced volatility, with U.S. stock indices initially rising before quickly retreating, and the dollar index showing mixed movements [2][8] Group 2 - The current economic conditions in the U.S. show increasing downward pressure, with market predictions suggesting the possibility of three more rate cuts within the year [3][9] - The Fed's decision to cut rates is seen as a preventive measure in response to deteriorating employment data, which has become a more pressing concern than moderate inflation [4][6] - The Fed has adjusted its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. from 1.4% to 1.6% for the year, while also lowering unemployment rate expectations, indicating some confidence in economic resilience [6][7] Group 3 - The narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is expected to ease external pressures on the Chinese yuan, creating a more favorable environment for the People's Bank of China to implement monetary easing [9][10] - The Fed's rate cut is anticipated to provide a window for policy adjustments in China, allowing for a focus on stimulating domestic economic growth [10][11] - Historical trends suggest that domestic equity assets in China may yield excess returns during Fed rate cut cycles, while bond prices typically rise and yields fall [11][12]