digihuman(BJ:835670) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-19 12:49Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has officially entered a new phase of large-scale application for the digital yuan, posing significant challenges to Alipay and WeChat Pay, which have dominated the mobile payment market in China [1][3][10] - As of the second quarter of 2025, the digital yuan has been normalized in 341 cities, covering over 1.2 billion people, with a total transaction amount exceeding 4.3 trillion yuan, marking a 217% increase in transaction scale compared to the same period in 2023 [1][3] Infrastructure and Policy Developments - The central bank's infrastructure for the digital yuan is nearly complete, with a focus on public services, retail consumption, and cross-border payments [3] - A new guideline from the central bank aims for the digital yuan to account for over 25% of retail payments and 60% in government procurement and public services by the end of 2026 [3][6] - The introduction of a special assessment mechanism for commercial banks and payment institutions to promote the digital yuan indicates a strong push from the central bank [3][6] Market Penetration and User Adoption - By August 2025, over 12 million merchants supported digital yuan payments, an 85% increase from the end of 2024, with many public services defaulting to digital yuan payments [6] - The penetration rate of the digital yuan in small, high-frequency payment scenarios reached 18.7% in the second quarter of 2025, with some pilot cities exceeding 30% [3][6] Competitive Landscape - Alipay and WeChat Pay, which together hold about 90% of the mobile payment market, are facing a significant challenge from the digital yuan, which is expected to capture 20%-25% of the market by the end of 2026 [6][8] - Both Alipay and WeChat Pay have integrated digital yuan services, with Alipay launching a dual incentive program to retain users [6][7] International Implications - The digital yuan's development is influencing international payment systems, with pilot cross-border payment projects already initiated in regions like Hong Kong and Singapore, totaling 21.7 billion yuan in transactions [7][8] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recognizes the digital yuan as the fastest-growing central bank digital currency (CBDC) among major economies, with predictions that 40% of global central banks will issue digital currencies by 2027 [8] Future Outlook - The digital yuan is seen as a key element in modernizing the financial system and enhancing the internationalization of the renminbi, with a focus on user privacy and efficient payment services [8][10] - The rapid promotion of the digital yuan signifies a transformative shift in the payment landscape, requiring all market participants to redefine their roles and strategies [10]