广东“双碳”路径研究成果出炉：2030年前有望率先达峰

Core Insights - The report by iGDP and the Guangzhou Institute of Energy Research outlines the pathways for Guangdong's low-carbon transition, emphasizing the province's potential to achieve its "dual carbon" goals on time or even ahead of schedule [1][2] Group 1: Current Status and Challenges - Guangdong, as a leading economic province, has significant energy consumption and carbon emissions, with CO2 emissions reaching 560 million tons in 2022, accounting for about 5% of the national total [2] - The province's non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions were notable, with 13% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 coming from methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases [2] - Guangdong's electricity demand is the highest in the country, with a peak load of 165 million kilowatts since July 2025, and about one-third of its electricity comes from external sources, indicating a low green electricity self-sufficiency rate [2] Group 2: Advantages for Transition - Guangdong has a relatively low-carbon industrial structure and advanced industrial energy efficiency, maintaining the second-lowest energy consumption per GDP in the country [3] - The province has experienced steady economic growth since 2005, with a decoupling trend between economic growth and emissions, laying a foundation for low-carbon transition [3] Group 3: Energy Consumption and Emission Projections - The report predicts that under current policies, Guangdong's CO2 emissions could peak at approximately 670 million tons by 2030, necessitating an increase in non-fossil energy generation to about 40% [4] - In a dual carbon scenario, the share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption is expected to rise from around 28% in 2020 to 36% by 2030, and further to over 74% by 2060 [4] - The electrification rate in various sectors is projected to increase significantly, with industrial electrification expected to rise from 39% in 2020 to 54% by 2030, and transportation electrification from 1% to 20% by 2060 [4] Group 4: Key Transition Strategies - The successful transition of the power sector is crucial for achieving Guangdong's dual carbon goals, with non-fossil power generation expected to surpass coal power around 2030 [5] - By 2060, renewable energy is projected to account for about 30% of total generation, with non-fossil sources making up 75%, while coal and gas plants will be equipped with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies [5] Group 5: Key Periods for Transition - The report identifies two critical periods for achieving the dual carbon goals, with specific tasks outlined for each period [6] - From now until 2030, Guangdong should focus on developing offshore wind and distributed solar power, enhancing green electricity self-sufficiency, and promoting energy efficiency in buildings and transportation [7] - From 2030 to 2060, the focus should shift to hydrogen energy substitution, controlling fluorinated gases, and implementing CCUS technologies, which could contribute 42% to emission reductions [7]