宽松“潮起”股市新高又新高，亚太市场谁主沉浮？｜东盟观察

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points, initiating a new easing cycle, with a total of three consecutive cuts. However, in 2025, the Fed maintained its stance for five consecutive meetings due to inflation concerns, before restarting rate cuts on September 17, 2025, which boosted market risk appetite and led to record highs in stock markets across China, the US, Japan, and South Korea [1]. Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve Actions - The recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to influence other Asian central banks, with predictions of rate reductions between 25 to 75 basis points for most Asian central banks next year, excluding the Bank of Japan [2]. - In a low interest rate and dollar environment, Asian stock markets typically perform well, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an optimistic outlook on markets in China, South Korea, and Japan [3]. Group 2: Focus on Chinese Market - Goldman Sachs has a positive view on the Chinese stock market, emphasizing themes such as leading private enterprises and the ongoing industry consolidation under the "anti-involution" theme, which could benefit these companies [3]. - Strong Chinese companies expanding into emerging markets and focusing on artificial intelligence, particularly robotics, are also highlighted as attractive investment opportunities. Additionally, there is a trend of higher shareholder returns, with companies increasing dividends and cash returns to shareholders [3]. Group 3: ASEAN Market Analysis - The ASEAN markets are lagging behind in the current easing cycle, with low valuations in markets like Indonesia and the Philippines, where expected P/E ratios are around 10 to 11, significantly below their long-term averages [4]. - Despite low liquidity challenges, particularly in the Philippines, the market is considered one of the cheapest in Asia, with a P/E ratio of 10, and potential for double-digit earnings growth. The domestic-driven sectors such as banking, real estate, and consumption are less sensitive to global risks, making the Philippines market attractive for investors willing to take on liquidity risks [4]. - Overall, Goldman Sachs holds an overweight view on the Philippines market, suggesting it offers good value and opportunities for investors who can manage liquidity risks [4].