外资大行先后评论中国股市：牛市可持续！摩根大通VS高盛核心观点对比解析

Group 1 - Recent reports from major foreign banks indicate a bullish outlook for the Chinese stock market, highlighting a "sustainable bull market" driven by a transformation in risk-reward structure [1][3] - Morgan Stanley identifies the bull market as being in a "sustainable formation phase," marked by a significant change in risk-reward dynamics, while Goldman Sachs emphasizes a "structural rise supported by valuation recovery" [3][5] - Both banks agree that advancements in AI technology are improving fundamentals, leading to a resonance between micro-structural improvements in the market and macro valuation recovery [1][3] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's key argument includes that the MSCI China Index's three-month return volatility ratio has risen to 0.96, approaching the U.S. market's 1.04, breaking the historical norm of high volatility accompanying market rises [4][5] - Goldman Sachs points out that the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index is currently at 13.3 times, which is 22% lower than the historical average and at levels seen during the 2018 bear market [6][7] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley focuses on the intensity of AI narratives and market sentiment, identifying key technology breakthroughs such as Alibaba's self-developed chips and advancements from companies like Cambrian and the "Yizhongtian" optical module leaders [7][8] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the ability of the AI industry chain to deliver on fundamentals, raising growth assumptions for Alibaba Cloud to 30%-32% for the fiscal year 2026 [9][10] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley believes that the "anti-involution" policy has a significant upward pull on the economy, with indicators such as PPI stabilizing for the first time in 14 months [11][12] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the macro policy mix will lead to an increase in the fiscal deficit rate from 10.4% to 13% by 2025, with private enterprise revenue growth expected to rise from 1% to 3% [12][13] Group 5 - Morgan Stanley's investment strategy focuses on using structured tools to hedge risks and capture short-term opportunities, with a preference for technology and cyclical sectors [12][13] - Goldman Sachs prioritizes fundamental stock selection, recommending to buy on dips, with a focus on service consumption and policy-supported private enterprises [13][14] Group 6 - Both banks share three core agreements: AI is a key driver of long-term growth, the policy environment is continuously improving, and the market presents attractive investment opportunities [14]