刚刚！“黑天鹅”突袭！崩了

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen strengthened significantly on September 19, leading to a sharp decline in the Japanese stock market and a ripple effect across Asian markets, driven by the Bank of Japan's decision to begin selling its holdings of domestic exchange-traded funds [1][2]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Decision - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without change, which was in line with market expectations [2]. - The announcement of gradually selling off its holdings in domestic exchange-traded funds caused market turbulence, with the Nikkei index dropping by 1.6% [2]. - Analysts interpret this move as a significant step away from the ultra-loose monetary policy of the Abe administration, indicating a potential tightening of policy [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Despite some signs of weakness, the Japanese economy is described as being on a path of moderate recovery, with stable private consumption and moderate growth in capital expenditure [5]. - A media survey indicated that most observers expect the Bank of Japan to raise the benchmark interest rate by January next year, with a 58% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year [5]. - The strengthening of the yen is expected to impact various markets, particularly through the reversal of carry trade positions, which could lead to significant market adjustments [5][6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Implications - Historical data shows that reversals in yen carry trade have occurred in specific periods, leading to yen appreciation and pressure on equity and commodity markets [6]. - Current carry trade volumes in yen are significantly lower than historical highs, suggesting a reduced scale of arbitrage trading due to narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and Japan [6].