美联储降息后国际资本流动“再平衡” 人民币资产吸引力提升

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts after nine months, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first cut since December 2024 and following three previous cuts totaling 100 basis points in 2024 [1][2]. Economic Data and Employment - The slowdown in the U.S. job market has been a significant factor driving the rate cut, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting a downward revision of 911,000 in new jobs over the past year, averaging a decrease of nearly 76,000 jobs per month [2]. - In August 2025, only 22,000 jobs were added, significantly below the expected 75,000, while the unemployment rate rose from 4.2% in July to 4.3% [2]. - Inflation risks remain, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising 2.7% year-over-year as of August 2025, and core PCE rising 2.9%, both exceeding the Fed's 2% target [2]. Federal Reserve's Focus - The Fed's decision reflects a shift in focus towards employment, as consumer spending, which accounts for 68% of GDP growth, is fundamentally linked to job stability [3]. - The decision was influenced by external pressures and internal voting disagreements, with a notable dissenting vote advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [3]. Future Policy Outlook - Analysts suggest that ongoing fiscal policies, tariff effects, and dollar depreciation may keep core PCE inflation relatively high in 2026, but further deterioration in the labor market could prompt another rate cut in October 2025 [4]. Global Financial Market Reactions - The Fed's rate cut has triggered a chain reaction in global financial markets, affecting the dollar's exchange rate and international capital flows [5]. - The dollar index has shown signs of decline, influenced by concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and the Fed's independence, which may further weaken the dollar [5]. Impact on Chinese Economy - The weakening dollar has led to a strengthening of the Chinese yuan against the dollar, with a continuous surplus in bank foreign exchange settlements and a balanced cross-border capital flow [6]. - The International Financial Association reported a significant inflow of foreign investment into emerging markets, particularly China, with net inflows of approximately $39 billion [6]. Monetary Policy in China - In response to the Fed's actions, China's monetary policy may focus more on fiscal measures and reforms rather than direct rate cuts, despite the narrowing interest rate differential providing some room for maneuver [7]. - Experts caution that further rate cuts in China could increase pressure on bank margins and lead to greater volatility in financial markets [7]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adjust asset allocation strategies in light of the Fed's rate cuts, emphasizing diversification across asset classes, sectors, and regions [9]. - Holding high-quality bonds is recommended to prepare for the new rate cut cycle, as the opportunity cost of holding dollar cash assets may rise with declining cash rates [9].