美联储连续降息要来了？特朗普关税政策恐是一大掣肘

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, restarting a rate-cutting cycle that had been paused for nine months, with expectations of two more cuts by the end of the year, although uncertainties remain due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation [1][2][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions - The median of the latest dot plot indicates two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, an increase from the June dot plot [1] - The Federal Reserve has become more dovish due to deteriorating employment data and the delayed transmission of tariff-induced inflation to consumers, suggesting that inflationary pressures may be temporarily manageable [1][4] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of future rate cuts, indicating that the policy path remains uncertain and may change based on inflation and employment trends [4] Group 2: Impact of Tariff Policies - The transmission of Trump's tariffs to inflation has not yet fully materialized, primarily due to companies stockpiling imports earlier this year, which has buffered inflation's impact on consumer prices [7] - As inventory is depleted, the inflationary effects of tariffs are expected to rise, suggesting potential upward pressure on inflation in the future [7] Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Despite political pressure from Trump, the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected to remain intact due to legal protections and the checks and balances inherent in the U.S. political system [6] - The decision-making process of the Federal Reserve is highly professionalized and relies on data, making it difficult for political preferences to dominate outcomes [6] Group 4: Economic Predictions and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has raised its inflation expectations and postponed the timeline for achieving inflation targets to 2028, indicating a belief that inflation may remain stubborn in the medium to long term [7] - If core PCE data significantly exceeds expectations in the coming months, the Federal Reserve may need to shift its focus back to inflation, potentially halting rate cuts [7] - The resumption of the rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve opens up more space for domestic monetary policy adjustments, although the impact is expected to be limited [8]