债市仍面临较大调整压力

Group 1 - The market's pricing expectations for "anti-involution" have strengthened since mid-September, leading to some recovery in the bond market, but significant adjustment pressure remains due to macro factors and limited buying power [1] - The current bond market adjustment since July differs from the one in the first quarter, as the central bank's liquidity tightening in Q1 forced financial institutions to reduce leverage, causing significant pressure on large banks' liabilities [3] - The yield curve of government bonds has shown a pronounced bear steepening characteristic in the current adjustment, with long bonds, especially ultra-long bonds, experiencing larger adjustments compared to the relatively stable performance of medium and short-term bonds [3] Group 2 - Since the third quarter, there has been a marginal improvement in the domestic economy, with easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a reduction in market risk aversion, but the "anti-involution" policy has created three negative effects on the bond market: supply contraction, rising prices, and increased risk appetite [5] - Recent trading pressures from funds have been significant, with a focus on selling ultra-long government bonds while buying short-term bonds, leading to a rapid decline in the duration of bond funds [5] - The performance of major institutions indicates a potential return of institutional buying power around the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields, but the sustainability of this trend remains to be observed [8]