Hu Xiu·2025-09-20 00:30Core Viewpoint - The valuation bubble in the "Seven Sisters" of U.S. stocks has not yet peaked, and there is still room for further growth in their prices [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Bubble Comparison - The average price increase from the bottom to the peak in ten major stock market bubbles since the early 20th century is 244% [6]. - The "Seven Sisters"—Tesla, Google, Apple, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia—have seen a cumulative increase of 223% since their low in March 2023, indicating potential for further gains [7]. - Historically, during market bubbles, the trailing P/E ratio typically reaches 58 times, and prices exceed their 200-day moving average by 29%. Currently, the trailing P/E ratio for the "Seven Sisters" is 39 times, with prices only 20% above the 200-day moving average [8]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Macro Environment - Strong market sentiment and macroeconomic conditions are key factors supporting the continued rise of tech stocks, driven by positive economic indicators, ongoing enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9]. - The S&P 500 Information Technology Index has surged 56% since its low in April, with investors consistently buying during pullbacks [10]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Strategy - A recent Bank of America survey indicates that "going long on the 'Seven Sisters'" is viewed as the most crowded trade for the second consecutive month, with 42% of respondents agreeing [12]. - The concentration of this trade aligns with historical bubble characteristics, as seen during the peak of the internet bubble in 2000 when tech stocks surged 61% in six months while other sectors declined [13]. - Despite the positive outlook for the tech bubble, the Bank of America team recommends a balanced strategy for investors, suggesting a "barbell strategy" that includes holding large tech stocks while also investing in some "bad value stocks" [15].