-20.13%！集运指数持续大跌 仍未触底？

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European route) has been experiencing a significant decline, with the main contract dropping 6% to 1050.5 points, marking a 20.13% decrease over the last 10 trading days [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The Shanghai export container freight index saw a 14.3% month-on-month decline, reaching 1198.21 points, indicating weak demand in the European shipping market [1] - The shipping market has officially entered the off-season, with cargo volumes typically at their lowest from September to October, averaging an 8% month-on-month decline during September from 2013 to present [3][4] - The supply of shipping capacity has been increasing, with a 15% year-on-year rise in capacity from East China to Europe, leading to intensified price competition [3][4] Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - The average price for large containers in the 41st week is reported at $1450/FEU, the lowest level in 2023, down over $1900/FEU from the peak of $3370/FEU at the end of July [3] - Major shipping companies have reduced their quotes for small containers to below $1000/TEU and large containers to around $1400/FEU, with ongoing adjustments to European route quotes [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the main contract still has room for further decline, with current prices approaching the breakeven point for some shipping companies [4][7] - The upcoming National Day holiday may impact the shipping index, with potential price adjustments expected as shipping companies announce their holiday schedules [6][7] - The market is divided on the potential for demand recovery in the peak season, with concerns over cargo volume shrinkage and high supply pressure influencing future contract pricing [7]