美联储降息“靴子落地” 货币政策预期博弈游戏刚刚开始？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [1] - The decision to cut rates is based on weak economic data, easing inflation pressures, and a weakening labor market, which reinforced market expectations for a rate cut [1][4] - Financial markets exhibited a "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon, with major U.S. stock indices initially rising but then retreating after the announcement, indicating a typical "buy the fact" reaction [1] Group 2 - The Fed's future rate cut pace will depend on three interconnected issues: the severity of the labor market's downturn, the speed at which policymakers adjust rates to neutral levels, and how to anchor the "neutral rate" in the current economic environment [1] - The Fed has expressed increased concern over "downside risks" in the labor market, adjusting its previous assessment of a "strong labor market" to a view of "slowing job growth and rising unemployment" [4] - Despite the Fed's rate cut, it is acting more slowly than the European Central Bank, and inflation remains a core constraint on further rate cuts, alongside risks in the housing market [4][5] Group 3 - The Fed views stabilizing long-term inflation expectations as a core monetary policy goal, with internal structural pressures on inflation still present despite manageable overall inflation [5] - The housing market shows signs of cooling, with weak demand and low existing home sales, which directly impacts monetary policy decisions [5] - Political uncertainties may influence the pace of rate cuts, but the Fed's independence is expected to maintain a gradual adjustment policy [7][8]