美联储降息如期而至，国际金价却大幅下跌，市场风向要变？｜大宗风云

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced significant fluctuations recently, with gold prices reaching historical highs before a sharp decline following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On September 18, the COMEX gold futures contract peaked at $3744 per ounce, marking a historical high since its listing, but subsequently fell by $39.6 to close at $3678 per ounce [2]. - As of September 19, COMEX gold was reported at $3677 per ounce, indicating a notable drop after the initial surge [2]. - The market had already priced in the expectation of a rate cut before the Federal Reserve's announcement, leading to a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was perceived as a risk management move rather than the start of a sustained easing cycle, which contributed to profit-taking among gold bulls [2][3]. - Market expectations had previously anticipated two rate cuts by the end of the year, but the actual cut was less than expected, leading to a sharp decline in gold prices [3][4]. - The cautious tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, emphasizing the uncertainty of future rate cuts, did not provide a strong signal for further easing, causing market doubts about the rate cut trajectory [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Expectations - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a significant drop, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below expectations, which raised concerns about the economy [5]. - Despite the weak employment data, inflation remains resilient, with the core PCE inflation rate still above the 2% target, indicating that the economy may not require aggressive rate cuts [5][6]. - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for October 28, with expectations of two more rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, which could support gold prices [6][7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors - Wall Street's outlook on gold has shifted, with some analysts warning of potential market corrections following the Fed's rate cut, as the market had already priced in the easing [7][8]. - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, have heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold [8][9]. - Long-term factors driving gold prices include concerns over U.S. dollar credibility and the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies, which may provide upward momentum for gold [9].