全球步入“裂变时代”：如何捕捉结构变迁中的投资新机遇？

Group 1: Global Economic Environment - The global economy is entering a new phase characterized by high volatility and low growth, with significant uncertainties impacting traditional pricing logic [2][4] - Key structural contradictions include population aging, national debt issues, and geopolitical tensions, which are constraining economic growth [2][4] - The rise of artificial intelligence and technological innovations is expected to take decades to fully impact economic vitality, despite their potential to drive growth [2][4] Group 2: Asset Pricing and Investment Strategies - Asset prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, necessitating heightened risk awareness among investors [3][4] - Gold and silver are highlighted as crucial components of the global monetary system, with gold prices having increased approximately sevenfold since 2005 [5][11] - The current geopolitical landscape is reshaping the G2 dynamics between the US and China, influencing capital flows and asset allocation strategies [5][6] Group 3: US Policy Impact - The Trump administration's tariff policies have evolved from targeted measures to a broader global trade conflict, impacting market dynamics and investor sentiment [7][8] - The combination of tax reforms and tariff policies is expected to generate significant government revenue, but the long-term economic implications remain uncertain [9][10] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Trends - The weakening of the US dollar is anticipated, driven by structural issues and a decline in trust among global investors [11][12] - Central banks are increasingly diversifying their reserves by accumulating gold, reflecting a shift in confidence away from the dollar [11][12] - The price of gold is projected to continue rising, with significant increases expected from 2024 onwards, driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [11][12] Group 5: Technological Revolution and Asset Valuation - The advent of artificial intelligence is expected to fundamentally reshape economic theories and asset valuation models [15][16] - The emergence of Web3 and tokenization technologies is poised to transform financial infrastructures and redefine value creation mechanisms [16][17] - Traditional asset pricing frameworks are under pressure, with significant disparities expected between sectors and asset classes [17] Group 6: Investment Outlook - Chinese assets are seen as undervalued, with potential for systemic revaluation supported by policy changes and economic fundamentals [18][19] - Growth sectors such as technology and innovative pharmaceuticals are highlighted as areas of opportunity, while traditional markets face challenges [19][20] - Gold is recommended as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, with its role as a safe-haven asset becoming increasingly relevant [19][21]