历史高点被“踩在脚下”，所有资产都在涨

Core Viewpoint - The global financial markets are experiencing a significant rise in risk assets, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the AI boom, marking the most extensive cross-asset surge since the speculative frenzy of 2021 [1][3][9] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices in the U.S. have reached new historical highs, with year-to-date increases of 14% and 17% respectively [1] - The MSCI All Country World Index has also hit a historical peak, with emerging market stocks outperforming global indices, indicating a sharp increase in investor risk appetite [3] - The credit market is witnessing a bullish trend, with the credit spread for high-rated U.S. companies narrowing to below 0.8 percentage points, the lowest level since 1998 [3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Narratives - The prevailing narrative on Wall Street is termed "The Great Resilience Trade," which is supported by resilient consumer behavior, the ongoing AI revolution, and a more lenient stance from the White House on tariffs [8][9] - The enthusiasm for AI investments is seen as a core driver of this market trend, with some investors likening it to a steroid-fueled internet bubble [9] - Despite the optimism, some analysts express concerns about high valuations, slowing revenue growth, and the significant investment needs of AI giants [9] Group 3: Economic Context and Federal Reserve Policy - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are interpreted as the beginning of a new easing cycle, leading to a substantial influx of capital into global stock markets [9][10] - The market is currently experiencing its largest weekly capital inflow since 2025 following the rate cut announcement, with expectations of at least four more rate cuts next year [9] Group 4: Caution Among Investors - Some investors are beginning to adopt defensive strategies, citing high geopolitical risks, a slowing U.S. labor market, and uncontrolled inflation as concerns [10][11] - The short positions in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF have reached a two-year high, indicating a cautious sentiment among some market participants [11] - Despite the prevailing bullish sentiment, there are indications of skepticism, with some analysts suggesting that the lingering doubts in the market could serve as fuel for the next upward phase [12][13]