鲍威尔泼冷水“激进降息”美国国债终结连涨

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell dampened market expectations for more aggressive rate cuts, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since mid-August [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - U.S. Treasury yields rose by 1 to 3 basis points across various maturities, continuing the upward trend initiated after the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut announcement on Wednesday [1] - The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased slightly to 4.12%, marking the highest level in two weeks [1] Group 2: Fed's Policy Stance - Powell indicated that policymakers will decide on future monetary policy in a "meeting-by-meeting" manner, which suppressed market expectations for rapid rate cuts [1] - Despite the Fed's recent rate cut, the interest rate swap market still leans towards the belief that the Fed will implement two more rate cuts this year [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Prior to the Fed meeting, the bond market exhibited extreme optimism in both sentiment and positioning [1] - The recent sell-off ended a period of rising U.S. Treasury prices, which had been driven by bets on quick reductions in borrowing costs due to signs of weakness in the labor market, despite inflation remaining above the Fed's target [1]