对明年降息幅度，市场预期比美联储激进的多！

Group 1 - Wall Street is betting on a faster and larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a stronger economy and financial markets, although this optimism may lead to potential adjustments in the future [1] - Futures market anticipates the Fed's benchmark short-term interest rate to drop below 3% by the end of next year, significantly lower than the current rate of just above 4% and the Fed's latest median projection of 3.4% [1] - The market's expectations for rate cuts have expanded since May, when investors projected a rate of only 3.5% by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment is described as "somewhat overly excited," indicating that if the Fed acts cautiously, borrowing costs may rebound, forcing traders to quickly adjust their positions [3] - Historical lessons show that investor expectations regarding interest rate trends directly impact U.S. Treasury yields and various borrowing costs [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen from 4.01% to 4.14% since the beginning of the month, although it remains below last year's peak [4] Group 3 - Historical experience indicates that market predictions about interest rate paths do not always materialize, as seen last September when strong employment data led to a significant rebound in Treasury yields after initial aggressive rate cut bets [7] - Investors are closely monitoring the unique circumstances surrounding the Fed's potential rate cuts, particularly in light of political pressures from former President Trump [8] - Despite political factors, market indicators suggest that investors do not believe the Fed will cut rates excessively due to inflation risks, as inflation expectations remain manageable [8]