美元节节败退！人民币稳住阵脚，能否一举破7？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, which has led to a stable performance of the RMB, reflecting a complex interplay of various factors in the market [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Performance Overview - The RMB has shown a "reverse drama" this year, starting from a high of 7.3 and rebounding significantly, with a notable appreciation in late August [3]. - The recent strength of the RMB is attributed to a "triple gain" effect, including expectations of Fed rate cuts, a declining US dollar index, and supportive internal factors [3][5]. - In July, the foreign exchange settlement surplus reached 22.8 billion USD, indicating improved market sentiment and increased demand for RMB [5]. Group 2: Future Outlook for RMB - The external environment, characterized by the Fed's rate cut cycle, is expected to benefit emerging markets, with the RMB likely to remain stable and slightly strong [7]. - Internal conditions, such as narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US, are expected to alleviate depreciation pressure on the RMB [7]. - For the RMB to break the 7.0 mark, stronger catalysts like sustained foreign capital inflows or better-than-expected economic data are needed [7][9].