美联储年内首次降息！失业率攀升，经济博弈加剧，鲍威尔妥协了？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has announced its first interest rate cut of the year on September 17, reducing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5%, with indications of two more cuts by the end of the year [2][12]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11 to 1 in favor of the rate cut, with only one dissenting vote from newly appointed member Stephen Milan, who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [2][4]. - The cautious language in the post-meeting statement described economic activity as "slowing" and highlighted the conflict between low employment growth and high inflation, indicating the Fed's challenging position [7][14]. Group 2: Economic Context - Recent labor market data shows a troubling trend, with an average of only 25,000 new jobs added per month over the past three months and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, signaling economic distress [9][11]. - The combination of tariffs and tightened immigration policies has increased labor costs and uncertainty for businesses, contributing to a downward spiral in labor market supply and demand [11][14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve faces the difficult task of balancing employment stability and inflation control in the coming months, complicated by political pressures [16]. - Chairman Powell emphasized that decisions are based solely on economic data, reflecting the core principle of the Fed's decision-making culture [16][18].