鲍威尔“大战”特朗普，11:1赢得一场独立性之战

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut, reflecting its "survival wisdom" under political pressure from the White House, particularly from Trump, who has remained unusually silent on the matter [1][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was passed with a surprising 11-1 vote, showcasing unexpected unity within the institution despite external pressures [2][10]. - Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management decision," indicating that the Fed believes its policies have been on the right track this year [6][19]. - The recent adjustment comes amid a backdrop of significant downward revisions in non-farm employment data, with a reduction of 910,000 jobs, highlighting the economic challenges faced [7][19]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The meeting was described as a "showdown" between the Federal Reserve and the White House, with Powell managing to maintain internal unity despite the political climate [9][10]. - The vote reflected a temporary victory for the Fed's independence, as the majority of members supported the rate cut despite potential pressures from Trump [10][12]. - The only dissenting vote came from a newly appointed member who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, indicating ongoing divisions within the Fed [11][13]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The rate cut is seen as a preventive measure to safeguard economic growth before a potential recession, with Powell acknowledging signs of a weakening job market [18][19]. - Historical precedents for preventive rate cuts have led to varied outcomes, including soft landings, recessions, and high inflation, raising questions about the current economic trajectory [21][26]. - Analysts express concerns that the current economic issues stem from rising costs rather than insufficient demand, suggesting that excessive monetary easing could exacerbate inflation [27][28].