广告失势、订阅转型，马斯克社交平台X二季度营收环比出现下降

Core Insights - The business scale of X, the social media platform owned by Elon Musk, has significantly shrunk compared to its pre-privatization status, with Q2 2025 revenue at approximately $707 million, a 20% year-over-year increase but a 40% drop compared to the same period in 2022 [1] Group 1: Revenue and Business Transition - X's traditional revenue source, advertising, has declined, leading to a strategic shift towards subscription services and data licensing to support its sister company, xAI [2] - The departure of CEO Linda Yaccarino in July is seen as a clear signal of X's accelerated transition towards becoming a data source for AI training, particularly for the chatbot Grok developed by xAI [2] - Despite a 20% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, the sustainability of this growth is questioned due to the loss of political advertising benefits following the fallout between Musk and Trump [2] Group 2: Profitability and Financial Health - X's gross profit decreased by 24% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, although it still showed over 30% growth year-over-year [3] - The adjusted EBITDA for the company was approximately $360 million, slightly lower than earlier in the year but reflecting a 33% year-over-year increase [3] - Limited disclosure of financial metrics from the previous year complicates the assessment of X's financial health [3] Group 3: Balance Sheet and Debt - X's cash reserves have significantly increased, rising from about $244 million at the end of 2024 to nearly $1 billion, primarily due to a recent equity financing round that raised $900 million [4] - The company's valuation remains stable at around $44 billion, consistent with the acquisition price in 2022 [4] - However, X still faces substantial debt burdens from the $12 billion debt incurred during Musk's acquisition of Twitter, which continues to weigh heavily on the company [4] Group 4: AI Strategy and Risks - Musk is positioning X for a new capital narrative centered around xAI, in which X holds an 11% stake [6] - xAI's recent funding round valued the company at up to $200 billion, potentially doubling the value of X's stake [6] - Despite the high return expectations, xAI is reportedly losing $1 billion per month due to aggressive investments in infrastructure, linking X's future to high-risk AI ventures [6]