从记者到 “周期赌神”！叶勇靠3大狠招，双基金躺赢51%-73%

Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive investment performance of Ye Yong, who transitioned from a financial journalist to a fund manager, achieving returns of 73.07% and 51.75% for his funds in the past year [1][3]. Investment Philosophy - Ye Yong's investment philosophy can be summarized as "good companies, low prices, and hold on," emphasizing a comprehensive evaluation of companies based on various indicators such as historical development, team composition, core technology, market competitiveness, and financial data [8]. - He believes in the importance of not only holding quality stocks during market volatility but also having the courage to increase positions [8]. Market Approach - Ye Yong emphasizes the need to align with macro and industry cycles, focusing on market style, industry beta, and then individual stock alpha [10]. - He identifies three key investment areas based on macro cycle judgments: industrial metals (like copper and aluminum), traditional cyclical leaders in sectors such as chemicals and steel, and post-cycle sectors like food and real estate [12][13][15][17]. Investment Timing and Indicators - Ye Yong advises investors to pay attention to leading indicators such as PPI, inventory cycles, and credit pulses to identify cycle positions [19]. - He provides specific buy and sell signals, including futures price structures and significant quarterly gross margin improvements for leading companies [19]. Recovery Sequence - Different cyclical industries recover in varying sequences, with chemicals and cement leading, followed by semiconductor materials, and finally consumer-related sectors like automotive and aviation [21]. Long-term Perspective - Ye Yong advocates for a long-term investment approach, suggesting that investors may need to hold cyclical stocks for 3 to 5 years to realize substantial returns [23]. - He emphasizes the importance of strong cash flow and the ability of companies to survive downturns, ensuring they can rebound when the economy improves [24]. Conclusion - Ye Yong's diverse career background contributes to his unique perspective on cyclical investments, demonstrating that understanding macroeconomic trends and maintaining patience are crucial for long-term success in investing [28].