Why next week could be brutal for the S&P 500

Market Performance - The S&P 500 closed at 6,664, up about 0.5% for the day, extending a rally of more than 4% over the past month [1] Historical Trends - Historical data indicates that the upcoming week has often produced negative results for the S&P 500, with a win rate of just 37%, making it one of the lowest-probability weeks for gains in the entire calendar year [3][6] - The average return for this period stands at -0.86%, contrasting with most weeks across the year that lean positive [6] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, its first reduction since late 2024, bringing the target range to 4.00%–4.25% [7] - Inflation remains a concern, with consumer prices rising 2.9% in August, complicating expectations for a looser policy stance [7] Corporate Earnings - S&P 500 companies are expected to post approximately 7.7% profit growth and 6.3% revenue growth in the third quarter, continuing a nine-quarter streak of earnings expansion [8] - Technology and financial sectors are driving gains, while energy and consumer staples are lagging [8] Market Outlook - Despite potential challenges, Wall Street remains optimistic, with projections suggesting the index could climb to the 7,000 milestone in the coming months [8]