方正证券：年末多为行情出现转折的重要时点 涨幅靠前行业反转概率较大

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that year-end often marks a significant turning point in market trends, driven by performance evaluations and the potential for "valuation switching" as next year's earnings expectations come into focus [1] - Investors with strong performance may take profits at high levels, while underperformers seek low-priced stocks with potential for recovery, creating a motivation for portfolio adjustments [1] - Historical data from 2010 to 2024 indicates that industries with strong performance in the first three quarters tend to reverse in the fourth quarter, with 73.3% of the time showing a median ranking in the lower half for the fourth quarter [1] Group 2 - The likelihood of reversal for previously high-performing industries at year-end is significant, while the probability of weaker sectors recovering is not as pronounced [2]