美联储降息如期而至，国际金价却大幅下跌，市场风向要变？

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced significant fluctuations, with gold prices reaching historical highs before a sharp decline following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, indicating a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, which was already anticipated by the market, leading to a sell-off in gold as traders took profits [1][2]. - Prior to the rate cut, gold prices surged from $3,350 to $3,744 per ounce, reflecting excessive market trading on the expectation of multiple rate cuts [2]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious statements post-meeting indicated that the rate cut was a risk management measure rather than the start of a sustained easing cycle, contributing to the decline in gold prices [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The U.S. non-farm payrolls data showed a significant drop in job growth, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below expectations, which influenced the Fed's decision to cut rates [4]. - Despite the weak employment data, inflation remains resilient, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.9% year-on-year, suggesting that the economic context differs from previous years [4]. - Analysts predict that the Fed may implement two more rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points, which could support gold prices [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment has shifted, with some analysts warning of potential short-term profit-taking in the stock market following the Fed's rate cut, which could lead to increased interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, have heightened investor demand for gold, although the primary driver for gold's price movement remains monetary policy expectations [7]. - Long-term, concerns about U.S. dollar credibility and the expansion of U.S. debt could provide upward momentum for gold prices, despite short-term fluctuations [8].