所有人速看，年内首次，下调25个基点，房贷利率下周马上降？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has quietly lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the first interest rate cut since December 2024, driven by persistent weakness in U.S. employment data and a focus on maximizing employment over price stability [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Global Financial Markets - The Fed's rate cut is interpreted as a "preventive rate cut," indicating a cautious outlook on future economic growth [3]. - The decision is expected to influence global capital flows and the value of the Chinese yuan, potentially leading to reduced depreciation pressure on the yuan and affecting the attractiveness of dollar-denominated Chinese assets [5][13]. - Historical data shows that adjustments in China's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) typically lag behind Fed policy changes by 3-6 months, although recent actions have demonstrated the People's Bank of China's flexibility in responding to global monetary policy shifts [5][7]. Group 2: Differences in Mortgage Systems - The U.S. mortgage market primarily features 30-year fixed-rate loans, meaning the Fed's rate cut will directly benefit new homebuyers by locking in lower monthly payments [6]. - In contrast, China's housing credit system relies on floating rates based on LPR, which means existing mortgage rates will not be immediately affected by the Fed's actions and will only adjust at the beginning of the following year [6][12]. Group 3: Potential Effects on Chinese Housing Market - The anticipated reduction in LPR could significantly lower mortgage costs, thereby boosting market confidence and stimulating housing demand [13][15]. - A specific example illustrates that a 25 basis point reduction in LPR could save a borrower approximately 9 million yuan in interest over 30 years, highlighting the importance of such adjustments for household financial planning [16][20]. Group 4: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - There is a growing expectation for a downward adjustment in LPR, driven by recent policy signals indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [14][15]. - The upcoming LPR announcement on September 22 is highly anticipated, with predictions that some cities may see first-time home loan rates drop below 3% [15].