5千店目标下，爷爷不泡茶的加盟商还好吗？

Core Insights - The tea brand "Grandpa Does Not Brew Tea" has shown remarkable growth, ranking in the top 20 of the 2025 Hurun China New Tea Drink Brand List and recognized as the fastest-growing brand by Shangpu Consulting based on sales and store count [2][4] - The brand aims to reach a minimum of 4,500 stores by 2025, with a target of opening 2,100 new stores this year, averaging 17 openings per day [4] Expansion and Store Performance - The brand has rapidly expanded, adding nearly 1,800 stores in 2024, surpassing 2,000 total stores, and exceeding 2,400 by September 2025 [4] - Despite high opening numbers, many stores face operational challenges, with initial strong performance declining over time [5][6] - For example, a store in Jiangxi saw its GMV peak at 210,000 yuan within two months but dropped to around 65,000 yuan during the off-season, leading to potential profitability issues [6][10] Financial Challenges - The brand's franchisees are experiencing significant pressure due to low revenue realization rates and high operational costs [10][12] - The average realization rate is around 60%, with some stores dropping to 55%, making it difficult for franchisees to achieve profitability compared to competitors [12] - Initial investment costs for a 30-square-meter store are approximately 330,000 yuan, but actual costs often exceed 500,000 yuan due to rising rental and operational expenses [12][14] Market Saturation and Competition - Many stores are located in highly saturated markets, with at least 15 competing tea shops within a 1-kilometer radius, leading to decreased customer traffic once initial excitement fades [7][15] - The brand's product offerings, while differentiated by the "Oriental Fragrant Tea" concept, still compete in a crowded market with similar products from established brands [15][17] Franchisee Quality and Management Issues - The low entry barrier for franchisees has attracted a diverse range of investors, resulting in varying levels of operational expertise and financial stability among franchisees [17][18] - The rapid expansion has strained supply chain and management capabilities, with many stores spread thinly across cities, complicating logistics and inventory management [18][19] Future Outlook - The brand is seeking to improve its profitability, projecting a net profit of 200 million yuan in 2025, while also facing potential legal risks related to trademark registration [19][20] - To transition from a "viral" brand to a sustainable one, the company must focus on building a robust product repurchase system, stable single-store profitability, and an efficient supply chain [20][21]