5年后，现在200万的房子还能值多少？3大趋势已暗示结果

Core Viewpoint - The future market value of a property currently worth 2 million is uncertain, with opinions divided between optimistic predictions of price recovery and pessimistic views of declining value due to fundamental shifts in housing demand and supply dynamics [1] Group 1: Trend Analysis - Trend 1: A downward trend in housing prices has already formed and is irreversible, with national average housing prices having dropped over 30% since early 2022, affecting both second-tier cities and major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [2] - Trend 2: China is entering a deep aging society, with the elderly population expected to exceed 310 million by the end of 2024 and reach 400 million by 2035, while the younger population is declining, leading to reduced housing demand [3][4] - Trend 3: The domestic real estate market is experiencing a severe oversupply, with 600 million existing homes and over 10 million new homes entering the market annually, resulting in a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand [6][10] Group 2: Future Implications - The combination of these three trends suggests that the market value of a 2 million property five years from now is likely to be significantly lower than its current value, with the risk of asset depreciation for families considering home purchases [10]