房价连续跌了4年，涨回来只用了3天？楼市拐点难道来了？

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a stark contrast between a temporary surge in luxury property sales and a continued decline in the overall housing market, indicating a complex and divided landscape [1][3][11] Policy Impact - Various government policies have been implemented to stimulate the housing market, including reduced down payments and interest rates, as well as direct subsidies for homebuyers [3][5] - These measures have led to a temporary increase in transactions in certain areas, such as a 38% rise in transaction volume for older homes in Hangzhou after the removal of purchase restrictions [5][6] Market Division - The real estate market is showing extreme division, with luxury properties experiencing a surge in demand, evidenced by a 184% increase in transactions for high-end homes in Shenzhen [8][9] - Conversely, the second-hand housing market is struggling, with significant price reductions required to facilitate sales, such as a 14% price cut in Shenzhen [8][9] Economic Role of Real Estate - The real estate sector, once a key driver of China's economy, is now facing significant challenges, with a reported 11.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment [11][12] - The contribution of land sales to local government revenue has decreased by 23.2% compared to peak levels, indicating a shift in the economic landscape [11][12] Future Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to undergo a "threefold differentiation," with core first-tier cities maintaining stability while third and fourth-tier cities continue to face challenges [13][14] - The focus is shifting from speculative investment to a more rational approach centered on living quality, as the market adapts to changing consumer preferences [16][17]