期价刷新3个月低点，聚酯产业如何摆脱“淡季涨价、旺季促销”的怪圈？

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry is experiencing an unusual pricing cycle characterized by "off-season price increases and peak-season promotions," deviating from the traditional pattern of "off-season promotions and peak-season price increases" [1][3][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 19, PTA and PX futures prices dropped significantly, with PTA prices falling below the critical support level of 4600 yuan/ton, despite being in the traditional peak season [1] - The average sales rate of polyester factories' polyester filament surged to 186.4% on September 10, with some factories reaching as high as 400%, but prices were unexpectedly lowered just five days later [3][4] - The polyester industry is facing a mismatch in supply and demand, with overproduction during peak seasons and underproduction during off-seasons, leading to price volatility [5][9] Group 2: Factors Behind the Pricing Cycle - External factors such as geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices have driven up raw material costs, prompting polyester companies to raise prices during off-seasons [8] - The structural mismatch in production capacity has been exacerbated by aggressive expansion by some companies, leading to oversupply during peak seasons and tight supply during off-seasons [9][10] - The current market structure has changed, with downstream weaving enterprises becoming more cautious in their purchasing behavior, affecting overall demand [10][11] Group 3: Impacts on the Industry - The pricing anomaly has created significant challenges for downstream weaving enterprises, which are now more hesitant to stock up on raw materials due to the risk of high costs [11][12] - Upstream producers benefit from price increases during off-seasons, while polyester manufacturers struggle with low margins and high inventory levels during peak seasons [14] - The imbalance in profit distribution across the supply chain has led to increased pressure on smaller enterprises, which lack the financial resilience to withstand price fluctuations [14][15] Group 4: Solutions and Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that rebuilding trust between upstream and downstream players is essential to break the current cycle, emphasizing the need for collaboration and communication [16][17] - Addressing structural overcapacity and focusing on value competition rather than price competition are critical for the industry's recovery [17][18] - Expanding into new markets and fostering domestic demand for innovative applications are necessary steps to stabilize the polyester industry and restore healthy pricing cycles [18][19]