住建部宣布，已查清全国住房数量，楼市或将迎来一场全新的变革？

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is facing unprecedented challenges, characterized by a significant surplus of inventory and weak market demand, leading to concerns about the future direction of housing prices [1][3]. Inventory Crisis - The total unsold residential property in China has reached 739 million square meters, a substantial increase of 15.2% year-on-year, with residential inventory rising by 23.5% [3]. - The average inventory turnover period for residential properties in 50 key cities has extended to 21.3 months, an increase of 3.9 months from the previous year, indicating a prolonged period required to sell existing homes [3]. - In third and fourth-tier cities, the inventory turnover period is even longer, averaging 30.7 months, highlighting the severe pressure of inventory accumulation [3]. Supply-Demand Imbalance - The total housing stock in China has surpassed 600 million units, which could accommodate a population of 2.4 billion based on an average household size of four, while the actual population is significantly lower [5]. - This stark discrepancy between supply and demand underscores a critical oversupply situation in the Chinese residential market [5]. Market Dynamics - The oversupply of housing has led to a natural decline in market activity, as the saturation of the market results in slower sales [6]. - The real estate sector is a crucial part of the Chinese economy, influencing various related industries such as construction materials, home furnishings, and finance, making it essential to address the inventory crisis [6]. Transformational Changes - The era of rapidly rising housing prices is over, with future price adjustments expected to be more rational to help absorb excess inventory [8]. - The primary focus will shift to inventory reduction, with a series of policies aimed at stimulating home-buying demand anticipated to be introduced [8]. - New property developments will face significant slowdowns, as the market no longer requires large-scale new supply, and financial institutions are likely to tighten credit policies to control new supply impulses [8]. Conclusion - The Chinese real estate market has transitioned from a phase of rapid growth to a "new normal" characterized by a significant oversupply of housing, marking a profound transformation that will have lasting implications for the future of the Chinese economy [8].