Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-21 10:47Core Viewpoint - The financial assistance provided by Shenzhen Metro Group (深铁) to Vanke (万科) is substantial, yet Vanke continues to face significant challenges despite this support [2][3][6]. Financial Assistance and Management - Shenzhen Metro has provided Vanke with 26 billion yuan in loans for 2025, along with ongoing credit guarantees and asset acquisitions, positioning itself as a supportive major shareholder [2]. - An investor suggested that Shenzhen Metro should engage in market value management for Vanke, given the low price-to-book ratio and the high premium paid during the initial acquisition [3]. - Despite the financial support, Shenzhen Metro's ability to manage Vanke's market value is limited due to its own financial constraints [3][6]. Business Performance - Shenzhen Metro's subway operations generated 5.592 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of the year, a 16.34% increase year-on-year, but incurred costs of 6.86 billion yuan, leading to a gross loss [4]. - The real estate development segment, which historically supported the subway operations, saw a 63% decline in revenue to 1.625 billion yuan, dropping its contribution to total revenue below 30% for the first time [4][6]. - Overall, Shenzhen Metro reported a net loss of 3.3 billion yuan in the first half of the year, primarily due to the underperformance of its real estate segment and losses from Vanke [6]. Cash Flow and Financing - Cash flow from sales decreased by 13% year-on-year, indicating a decline in overall cash inflow despite increased subway ridership [5]. - Shenzhen Metro's fixed asset investment reached 44.282 billion yuan, a 34% increase, reflecting ongoing commitments to subway construction [6]. - The company received 7.6 billion yuan in government subsidies in 2023 and 9.8 billion yuan in 2024, which significantly bolstered its capital reserves [7][9]. Debt and Financial Structure - Shenzhen Metro's total liabilities amounted to approximately 479.62 billion yuan, with non-current liabilities at 355.04 billion yuan [10]. - The company increased its external borrowing to 20.3 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a significant rise compared to the previous year [11]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the sustainability of Shenzhen Metro's financial support for Vanke, as the company holds 27.18% of Vanke's shares, and further increases could trigger mandatory takeover obligations [11][12]. Long-term Outlook - Despite current challenges, Vanke remains a long-term investment for Shenzhen Metro, with the potential for recovery as the real estate market stabilizes [15].