回归基本面逻辑，中国债市独立走势凸显，30年国债ETF博时(511130)小幅上涨

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a slight increase, reflecting market dynamics influenced by government bond issuance and central bank policies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 19, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera rose by 0.11%, with a latest price of 107.46 yuan [2]. - Over the past week, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 0.65% [2]. - The ETF recorded a turnover of 8.01% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 1.589 billion yuan [2]. - The average daily transaction volume over the past month was 4.496 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Government Bond Issuance - The Ministry of Finance plans to auction 157 billion yuan of 3-year government bonds on September 26, 2025, using a modified multi-price bidding method [2]. - This issuance is expected to attract additional bids from Class A members [2]. Group 3: Central Bank Influence - There is an increasing market expectation for the central bank to resume government bond purchases, which is providing some support to market interest rates [2]. - Earlier in the year, the 10-year government bond yield fell below 1.6%, prompting the central bank to pause bond purchases to avoid impacting investor allocations [2]. Group 4: Market Trends - The yield curve for interest rate bonds is widening, indicating a market response to long-term inflation expectations and short-term liquidity conditions [3]. - The 30-year government bond ETF has a current scale of 19.835 billion yuan [3]. - Recent data shows a net outflow of 713 million yuan from the ETF, although there have been net inflows on 8 out of the last 14 trading days, totaling 735 million yuan [3].